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Sneaky MVP Candidate Flying Under the Radar

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Once the All-Star Break concludes, the American League and National League MVP conversations usually heat up. Teams begin to pull away in their respective divisions or postseason races, players go on tears, and voters see who has what it takes. While both awards seem close to wrapped up, with superstars Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani pulling away, it’s still important to look at those lurking in the shadows. There’s one player who no one is talking about that should be in that conversation. The Boston Red Sox are pushing to make the playoffs for the first time since 2021. And sneaky MVP candidate Jarren Duran is flying under the radar.

Jarren Duran Quietly Making an MVP Case

The Numbers

On the surface, Duran has strong counting statistics. The outfielder is slashing .293/.353/.514 this season, good for a career-best .867 OPS. Duran has 17 home runs, an MLB-best 13 triples, and tops the American League with 39 doubles. His quickness causes havoc on the basepaths, with the 27-year-old stealing 32 bases already and tallying 88 runs (8th in MLB). Duran also has been productive with runners in scoring position, ranking 15th in baseball with a .293 average with RISP and second on the Red Sox with 64 RBI. His durability is also one of the best in MLB. Duran has missed just two games due to suspension and leads the league in plate appearances and at-bats.

 

Advanced Statistics

Those numbers all paint the picture of a strong and consistent hitter. But Duran is even more than what it seems. Looking at advanced stats tells you that he legitimately has been one of the best players in all of baseball this campaign. That’s true for both the offensive and defensive sides of the game. Duran currently ranks fifth in MLB in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). His 7.5 mark trails only Juan Soto (NYY), Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr. (KCR), and Judge. Duran sits above Ohtani, Francisco Lindor (NYM), Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and his teammate Rafael Devers. That’s extremely impressive for someone who, before 2024, had racked up just 1.3 total WAR in nearly 200 contests.

That number isn’t carried by one part of Duran’s game. He ranks sixth in offensive WAR and fifth in the defensive category. Duran has been a constant presence in Boston’s outfield unit, placing third in baseball with nine outfield assists. At this point, I think you can get the moral of the story. There aren’t many stats that make Duran look poor. The more you look into his 2024 campaign, the more impressive he becomes. After being somewhat of an unknown, Duran now has a solidified role and playing style. Despite many not talking about his performances or looking his way, the California native’s numbers speak for themselves. Like it or not, Duran is one of the best players in baseball. 

 

The Performances

The best players in baseball show up when it matters. They set the tone and lead their team constantly. Duran has done both of those things this year, specifically in the last 30 games. He’s batting .341 with an OPS above 1.040 during the stretch. His average has been coupled with seven homers, 23 RBI, and 10 bases. But it’s not just about his production. It’s about how he produces. 

On Tuesday, the Red Sox were in dire need of a win against the Houston Astros. Duran took matters into his own hands, smacking the first pitch of the game for a double to right field. He got to third on a wild pitch and then quickly scored. In the eighth inning, the score was tied at five apiece. Duran again took centerstage and smoked a homer to left center. Boston won 6-5 thanks to the outfielder’s four hits, three runs, two RBI, one home run, and one walk. The next day, Duran did it again with a double to kick things off. The Red Sox won 4-1, got to eight games over .500, and kept their playoff hopes alive.

 

Duran has hits in all but four of his August contests. In the Houston series, he totalled 14 bases in three matchups. After beginning the season with struggles, batting .253 on May 31, it’s been a different story since. Duran batted .364 in June, .306 in July, and has a current .301 in August. Boston has a massive three-game set against the Arizona Diamondbacks starting on Friday. Any sort of Duran production similar to his recent performances would be massive. That’s especially true when three of the Red Sox’s next four series’ are against the Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, and Chicago White Sox. Combined, those teams are 152-230. 

The Last Word for Jarren Duran

Duran is not going to win the AL MVP award this season. Judge, who is on pace to eclipse 60 homers yet again, will most certainly claim that prize. But that shouldn’t mean that we can’t highlight those just behind him. Duran is right there in that pack. If baseball had a Most Improved Award, similar to the one in the NBA, Duran would probably be the AL leader. If Judge wasn’t playing out of his mind, and at a historic pace, then the Boston player would have a fighting chance. If you turn on ESPN or MLB Network, the usuals will be highlighted. Duran, currently, is not one of those usuals that garner national attention. That should change very soon.

Main Photo Credit: © Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

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