And just in time as the Red Sox head down the stretch.
Welcome back to another edition of The Anatomy of An Inning. My name is Jacob Roy, and I pretend to know pitching better than the pitchers themselves. If you’re new here or need a reminder of what this is all about, I take an inning from the previous week or so and break it down, one pitch at a time. Each pitch should have a purpose, so I’m looking at each pitch individually to try to go beyond the box score and tell the full story.
Brayan Bello had lofty expectations coming into 2024. Last season, Bello showed flashes of brilliance, but never quite put it all together. That’s the phrase you hear when people discuss Bello, “putting it all together”. After a solid start to the season, five starts with a 3.04 ERA, Bello hit the IL and struggled to find his footing upon returning to the rotation. His next eleven starts returned a 6.51 ERA.
More recently, Bello has started to turn a corner. There have still been blemishes, but he’s put together more complete outings over his last few appearances. Last week, against the Mariners, he threw seven innings, allowing seven hits and two runs. Despite the relatively high WHIP, I walked away from the start incredibly impressed by Bello. Let’s jump in.
AB #1: Cal Raleigh
If you’re paying attention, you don’t need a Cal Raleigh scouting report. He kills the Red Sox. Every time he plays the Red Sox, it seems like he’s hitting a home run. In his first at-bat, he fouled off a first-pitch sinker before grounding out on a changeup over the plate.
First pitch, Bello tries to flip a slider in for a strike. He doesn’t quite get the break on it to bring it back to the strike zone though and it’s ball one. Good idea, just not quite the execution we want to see.
Nice pitch. He starts the sinker over the middle, running it back to the arm side. Raleigh fouls it off for strike one, indicating he feels comfortable hitting the sinker. At 1-1, I’d go to the changeup in a similar location.
Bello elects to double up on the fastball and leaves it over the middle of the plate. While this could work in theory, I think it’s something Bello should shy away from. Pitches often miss in the direction of their movement. Bello’s sinker moves towards the arm side, meaning it will frequently miss on the arm side. He wants to get this on the inside edge, but the movement takes it back over the middle. It’s great that Bello wants to use the entire plate, but right now I don’t think he has the command to consistently execute this pitch. Raleigh, ready for the fastball, is all over this and hits it off the monster and doubles to begin the inning.
AB #1: Justin Turner
Bello again starts the batter off with a slider, this time in the strike zone. Turner fouls it off for strike one – great start.
At 0-1, Bello goes to the sinker and paints it on the outside edge. Unfortunately, the umpire isn’t a fan of the arts and calls the pitch a ball. 1-1.
Bello takes a little bit off this one and the umpire doesn’t care at all, once again calling it a ball. With nobody out and a runner on second, Bello doesn’t want to fall behind 3-1. After two straight sinkers, he should change the velocity and throw either a slider or changeup, whichever he’s more confident in getting over for a strike.
He goes to the changeup and keeps it in a good location. Turner is expecting another fastball and finds himself in front of this one. With the ball down, all he can do is ground it softly to first base for the out.
AB #3: Jorge Polanco
Raleigh advanced to third on the ground ball. With one out and a runner on third, Bello should look for a strikeout but also needs to accept that there’s a high chance of the runner scoring. Too often this season, Bello has been rattled by runners on base and looked to be perfect, leading to snowball innings that take the team out of games.
First pitch, it’s a changeup that’s just off the plate. 1-0.
Slider, ball two.
Here’s a seemingly mundane 2-0 slider whiff, but there’s a lot to unpack here. First, it’s a big swing from Polanco and he’s way out in front. Ahead in the count, it’s clear he’s looking for a fastball. However, after a 2-0 changeup, Polanco may think he’s not going to see a fastball for the rest of the at-bat. Bello, despite being behind in the count, has the luxury of throwing pretty much whatever he wants.
Past the outcome of the pitch though, I want to talk about the pitch selection on a broader level. Too often this season, Bello hasn’t had command of his changeup, leading to non-competitive pitches and hitters hunting fastballs as a result. The fact that Bello, while in a jam, is willing to go to the changeup at 2-0 indicates confidence in the pitch. To me, that’s a great sign of growth.
At 2-1, Bello is feeling himself. Not in the Reese McGuire sense, but in the displaying confidence by adding a hesitation to his delivery sense. It’s another changeup, and Polanco is still out in front and fouls this one off. With two strikes, Bello is back in the driver’s seat. With two strikes, I’d keep the ball away from Polanco with either a sinker or another changeup. He could also elevate a four-seamer.
Are you kidding me, blue? We’ve got a guy dotting corners out here, and you’re asleep at the wheel. No matter, the high fastball sets up the arm side changeup nicely.
This is a really, really good pitch. It’s ball four, but it’s located almost perfectly. Despite the walk, I’m impressed by Bello’s composure following some very unfortunate calls from the umpire.
AB #4: Luke Raley
Raley is a very aggressive hitter. With a runner on first, Bello could try to take advantage of his aggression by throwing him early pitches down and away, trying to induce a ground ball. He should also avoid throwing a get-me-over fastball to start the at-bat.
It’s a first-pitch slider that’s fouled off. Raley is likely thankful this went foul because the barrel was nowhere near it.
Beautiful slider for strike two. At 0-2, the changeup down and glove side is the right choice. Start it on the edge, and let the movement take it away from the hitter.
This is perfect. It starts in a similar spot to the previous slider and finishes a foot off the plate. Raley has no chance. When Bello has his slider and changeup working, hitters are often left guessing.
AB #5: Dylan Moore
Moore is the opposite of Raley. He doesn’t chase at all and is much more patient at the plate. He takes his walks and doesn’t swing a ton early in counts.
Again, Bello throws a sinker away that I’m not overly fond of, but he gets the foul ball. 0-1.
This is frustrating. It’s 96 MPH on the inside edge. Probably slightly higher than you’d like to see, but it’s a good pitch regardless. Moore puts a good swing on it and somehow punches it into left field. It’s not hit very hard, but it gets the job done.
This is where things tend to get out of control for Bello. He should probably be out of the inning already, and instead, he’s surrendered the lead and has two runners on base.
AB #6: Mitch Garver
In his first at-bat, Garver struck out. All five of the pitches he saw were outside, and four of the five were sliders. If I’m Bello, I’m throwing the slider until he proves he can lay off.
Good job. Do it again.
Garver fouls this one off, but he’s still not totally on it. Personally, I’d throw a third slider, and if he lays off that one, throw a fourth. If there ever were a time for a backdoor sinker, this would be it. After striking out on four sliders, and going down 0-2 on two more, the thought of a fastball probably isn’t in Garver’s head. If Bello wanted to start a slider off the plate, running it back, it’s not the worst idea. Again, I’d go with the slider, but the sinker could work.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Bello, feeling good, hesitates and throws another slider. It’s up, but Garver still can’t get to it.
In this inning, Bello surrendered a double, a walk, and a single while being squeezed by a blind umpire. He battled through, made his pitches, and got out of the jam while allowing a single run. Earlier this season, Bello may have lost his composure and had the outing go off the rails. Outside of the double, Bello pitched a solid inning. The run is just bad luck and bad umpiring. When he’s throwing strikes and jumping in front of hitters, he’s hard to hit. When he falls behind (like he did on Tuesday against Kansas City), that’s where the trouble sets in.
Bonus At-Bat
Just for fun, let’s watch Bello face Garver later in the game.
Slider, called strike one. It’s about time, blue.
Here’s that backdoor sinker. Garver sees the ball away and likely leaves it, thinking it’s another slider. It comes back towards the plate, and all of a sudden it’s 0-2. Throw another slider, and Garver is toast.
It’s the slider and Garver pops out. Some element of fatigue likely leads to this being over the plate, but it doesn’t matter because Garver is guessing. This is what it looks like when a hitter is beat. Garver hadn’t been able to lay off the slider to this point, and he’s at Bello’s mercy as a result. Props to Bello for executing his pitches, and props to Danny Jansen for recognizing Garver’s struggles with the slider and exposing that weakness.