The only MLB starter acquired by the Red Sox hasn’t been sharp in 2024.
Welcome back to another edition of The Anatomy of An Inning. My name is Jacob Roy, and I pretend to know pitching better than the pitchers themselves. If you’re new here or need a reminder of what this is all about, I take an inning from the previous week of Red Sox baseball and break it down, one pitch at a time. Each pitch should have a purpose, I’m looking at each individually to try to go beyond the box score and tell the full story.
Old friend James Paxton became reacquainted with Fenway Park on Tuesday night, after being acquired from the Dodgers for a young prospect before the trade deadline. Paxton found success early in his Red Sox tenure, pitching his way to a 2.73 ERA over his first 10 starts in 2023. Unfortunately, he faltered in the second half, finishing six innings just twice in his final nine starts. Paxton signed with the Dodgers in the off-season, was a serviceable arm for them, and was ultimately designated for assignment to make room for several pitchers returning from injury. Let’s take a look at a Paxton inning from early last year, and then an inning from last night to see if the pitcher who anchored the Red Sox rotation in May and June of 2023 is still in there.
Let’s start in June of 2023. Paxton, recently off the injured list, has put together a string of solid outings and takes the hill for his third inning of work against the Minnesota Twins.
AB #1: Kyle Fulmer
First up, Kyle Fulmer. He’s not the most intimidating hitter, he he hits lefties well. Most of his damage comes off the fastball, something for Paxton to keep in mind as he starts the at-bat.
Paxton starts the inning with a curveball for called strike one. With Farmer likely looking for a fastball on the inner half, this is a perfect pitch.
He tries to go with a changeup away to play off the curveball but spikes it. Good idea, poor execution. 1-1.
Here’s a fastball up and away that Farmer can’t catch up with. With two strikes, Paxton has options. Following a swing at a fastball, a changeup down and away will be tempting, as will the cutter or curveball to the back foot. He could also throw another fastball but needs to be sure it stays above the zone.
He goes with the curveball and spits it well, but Farmer is just able to reach out and tap it foul. You can tell by the swing that Farmer was geared up for a fastball and adjusting to fight off the off-speed pitch. If Paxton doubles up on the curveball, locating this one even lower, he likely has a strikeout. If he wants to go with the high fastball, he again needs to be sure to keep it high.
Beautiful. 95 MPH, and even though Farmer is looking for it, he can’t hold up.
AB #2: Joey Gallo
It’s a fastball on the inner half for a base hit. Paxton is probably thankful Gallo didn’t do more damage here.
AB #3: Christian Vazquez
Fastball, up and away for ball one.
Here’s another fastball fouled off for strike two. A quick look at a scouting report shows that Vazquez has trouble with velocity up in the zone. I’d have no problem with Paxton going back up there a third time.
He goes with the changeup, and while it’s not perfectly located, Vazquez is still out in front and lines it to third. High fastballs make everything else easier.
AB #4: Donovan Solano
First pitch curveball. It’s a bit high, but that’s no problem because Solano is sitting dead-red. To quote PitcherList.com’s Nick Pollack quoting an old comedy sketch, “It’s free real estate”.
He follows it up with a changeup that’s very nicely placed on the outside edge. Solano fouls it for strike two. It’s 0-2, you can do whatever you want, as long as it isn’t good to hit.
Really good fastball, but Solano fouls it off. I’d go with one of his breaking balls in the dirt, but another fastball works as well.
It’s the cutter in the dirt, and Solano can’t hold up. Besides the first pitch fastball to Gallo, it’s a pretty perfect inning. When he’s placing 95ish MPH fastballs at the top of the zone, it allows him to bury his breaking balls in the dirt for swings and misses.
Now, fast forward to Tuesday night. The first inning against the Seattle Mariners was fastball-heavy and not particularly interesting, so we’ll start in the second inning.
AB #1: Jorge Polanco
Paxton starts Polanco off with a sinker(?) up in and that’s fouled off for strike one. Paxton’s sinker is very similar to his fastball, with slightly more arm-side movement and drop. Either way, it’s well located up and in where it’s hard to square up. This is particularly important for the first pitch of the at-bat, where Polanco is likely looking for a fastball.
It’s a curveball, located nicely on the outer half for called strike two. With two strikes, I’m throwing something in the dirt, or a high fastball.
Beautiful. Curveball, below the zone and Polanco comes up empty.
AB #2: Dylan Moore
Curveball, above the zone for ball one. I love first-pitch curveballs, but I love them in the zone.
This is a strange one. Paxton hits his spot with a fastball perfectly, but it’s in a great location for Moore to hit. Maybe the scouting report expected Moore to take the first strike? I don’t know, but at 92 MPH, this isn’t getting by most hitters.
AB #3: Mitch Garver
Another first-pitch curveball that misses for ball one.
Here’s a better one to even the count.
Here’s a fastball above the zone, and Garver isn’t interested. At 2-1 with a runner on base, I’d look for something down in the zone to get a ground ball out.
Paxton yanks a fastball for ball three. The base is open, but you never want to walk a 0.174 hitter.
He goes with the sinker and places it nicely on the inside edge to get the pop out. I’m very interested in the idea of throwing multiple fastballs and the effect it has on hitters. With slightly different movement, it could throw off hitters’ bat paths and help miss barrels. This sinker comes back towards the plate about four inches more than the four-seamer would. If Garver is trying to pull this ball, he may be slightly out in front with the barrel of his bat, leading to a pop-up off the end. It’s a game of inches.
AB #4: Mitch Haniger
Paxton starts the at-bat with a sinker at the top of the zone. I wrote about the high sinker this off-season and this may be anecdotal proof of concept.
Curveball, in the dirt for ball one.
This is really nicely done. Haniger is expecting another fastball following the non-competitive curve. Instead, it’s another curveball that’s executed well and Haniger is caught off-balance. With two strikes, Paxton should either elevate a fastball or spike a third curveball. I’d opt for the former.
Good pitch. Haniger is late and can only fight it off. No harm, no foul, just do it again.
Curveball, probably a bit higher than Paxton would like. Still, Haniger is at his mercy with two strikes and lazily flies out to right field.
Overall, I was pleasantly surprised with James Paxton’s first outing. Despite the decreased velocity, he located his pitches well and got into advantageous counts. He needs to keep his four-seamer up in the zone if they’re only going to be 93 MPH, but an increase in sinker usage should help keep hitters off the fastball to an extent. With less velocity, he’ll need to be more precise with the command of his off-speed pitches, but I found myself encouraged by the approach and execution on Tuesday night.