If he can be more consistent. . .
Welcome back to another edition of The Anatomy of An Inning. My name is Jacob Roy, and I pretend to know pitching better than the pitchers themselves. If you’re new here or need a reminder of what this is all about, I take an inning from the previous week or so and break it down, one pitch at a time. Each pitch should have a purpose, so I’m looking at each pitch individually to try to go beyond the box score and tell the full story.
Greg Weissert has had an up-and-down season — literally. His first 24 appearances came with a 1.96 ERA. In his next 21, he ran an ERA close to 6.50. He was sent down to Worcester at the end of July to reset and has worked three scoreless outings since arriving back in Boston. Did the time off work? Is this a fluke? If the Red Sox are going to make the post-season, Weissert is going to need to step up as a stabilizing force in the pen, so let’s take a look at Weissert’s most recent outing to see if he’s regained the form he had at the beginning of the season.
The Situation
It’s a two-run game, and Weissert enters the game with runners on second and third with one out. A strikeout would go a long way to getting out of the jam.
AB #1: George Springer
Springer is very aggressive and no stranger to expanding the zone. He struggles with breaking pitches, so if Weissert can get ahead, he may be able to put him away with a steady diet of sweepers.
Well, that’s one way to end the inning. Weissert tries to get a sinker on the inside edge to jam Springer, but it ends up over the plate. Springer can’t square it up, flies out, and Abreu makes a great throw to get the third out.
I like the idea of going inside to induce weak contact given his aggressiveness, but the execution wasn’t there. While Weissert escaped the inning unscathed, he’s lucky Springer didn’t do more damage with this one.
AB #2: Daulton Varsho
Varsho, although left-handed, struggles against right-handed pitching. He’s patient and takes his walks, but also whiffs frequently.
First pitch sweeper on the lower-inside corner. Varsho is out in front and fouls it off. Great pitch in a location where it’s difficult for a hitter to damage if they aren’t sitting on it.
Beautiful. The previous pitch started in the same location and cut all the way across the plate. This pitch runs further outside and Varsho is once again out in front. At 0-2, Weissert can throw anything he wants, as long as it isn’t good to hit. Following two softer pitches, I like a high fastball to change speeds.
Weissert tries to execute the high fastball and leaves it right down the pipe. His low release point creates a flat entry angle which helps prevent some damage on pitches in poor locations. The shape of the pitch becomes less relevant the more times the hitter sees it though, so Weissert should be careful to not make this mistake again.
Weissert tries the high heater again and misses again. This one is off the plate in a much less dangerous location. After two misses, I’d go back to the changeup away to reset his release point.
Good pitch, but Varsho sees it following the previous two fastballs. Again, the changeup is set up nicely.
Yanked it. I’m begging for the changeup.
It is the changeup, and while it’s left over the plate, Varsho skies it to right field. It’s not the best pitch, but sometimes hitters just can’t take advantage of a mistake.
AB #3: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Weissert tries to backdoor a sinker and misses, but it’s over the plate for strike one. Not a great pitch, but Guerrero takes and Weissert is ahead. I should also note that while I typically don’t like backdoor pitches, I’m not mad about Weissert trying to keep the ball away from a dangerous hitter to start the at-bat.
Very nice. It’s a second sinker, this time on the low inside corner. While Guerrero is excellent at hitting balls on the inner half of the plate, the movement on Weissert’s sinker makes it difficult to drive when it’s low and inside. With two strikes following two sinkers, I’d go with a sweeper on the outer half.
Yuck. Weissert again tries to backdoor a sinker and misses over the heart of the plate. While I was fine with this call to begin the at-bat, I hate it here. With two strikes, Guerrero has to be ready to swing the bat. Pitches often miss in the direction of their movement, meaning sinkers will frequently miss to the arm side. If he hits his spot, there’s a high likelihood Guererro fouls it off. Here, Weissert misses over the plate and is fortunate that it’s grounded up the middle for the second out.
AB #4: Spencer Horwitz
You have to throw Spencer Horwitz a strike or else he’ll take a walk. He’s passive, doesn’t expand the zone, and has solid bat-to-ball skills.
First pitch changeup below the zone ball one.
Sinker, outside half to even the count. Here’s another pitch you can get away with at 0-0 or 1-0, but probably not with a hitter broadening their sights. Opposite-handed hitters are very good at angling the barrel and slapping sinkers on the outer half away. Horwitz especially is adept at getting the bat on the ball. Good pitch to get the strike, but I’d stay away from this for the rest of the matchup.
Weissert again tries to execute the high fastball and again leaves it in the zone. Horwitz, like Varsho, can’t square it and it’s strike two.
Good pitch. He starts the pitch on the outer half, finishing it off the plate. Horwitz is too disciplined to chase at this moment, but it’s a good pitch regardless. After the changeup, he can either throw another changeup, try to get a sweeper to the back foot, or try the high fastball again.
I’m okay with this. It’s a fastball at the top of the zone where the shape should help it play well, but Horwitz is able to send it back up the middle for a base hit. Solid execution throughout the at-bat, this is just a good piece of hitting. Two-out, bases-empty singles won’t kill you (most of the time), just get the next hitter.
AB #5: Addison Barger
Sweeper for called strike one. Perfect pitch.
Another excellent changeup that plays so well off the sweeper. At 0-2, I’d go back to the changeup.
Good pitch at the top of the zone. Barger gets a piece, but it sets up a changeup nicely.
There it is. Weissert misses with the fastball and it’s finally cost him. Gotta make a better pitch at 0-2.
AB #6: Alejandro Kirk
With a runner on second, this out becomes incredibly important. Spencer Horwitz isn’t a fast runner, but a ball into the alley likely scores a run. Kirk is another patient hitter who won’t expand the zone often. He’s not a great fastball hitter, so Weissert may try to jam him inside with sinkers.
First pitch sinker on the inner edge that’s fouled off. Good start.
Another sinker. This one is supposed to be backdoor, but it misses on the arm side. Fortunately, it’s so far inside that it’s in a location where it’s hard to get the barrel on. Kirk is jammed, and O’Neill runs it down for the third out.
After watching the complete outing, you can get a pretty good idea of who Weissert is. He has excellent stuff and weapons to cover the entire strike zone and attack both sides of the plate. At the same time, his ultra-cross-body delivery will make it challenging for him to consistently command his pitches. Because of this, he needs to rely on stuff to make up for his mistake pitches, which leaves the door open for blow-up appearances. I came into this not expecting to be impressed with Weissert but came away seeing a path for shutdown outings. The consistency may not be there, but at this point, the Red Sox need all of the bullpen help they can get, so they’ll be counting on Weissert to get hot and contribute through the middle innings.