The Red Sox starter oscillates from brilliant to brutal, sometimes in the same inning.
Welcome back to another edition of The Anatomy of An Inning. My name is Jacob Roy, and I pretend to know pitching better than the pitchers themselves. If you’re new here or need a reminder of what this is all about, I take an inning from the previous week or so and break it down, one pitch at a time. Each pitch should have a purpose, so I’m looking at each pitch individually to try to go beyond the box score and tell the full story.
Nick Pivetta seemingly alternates between shutdown and meltdown innings. At times, he looks like the best pitcher on the planet. Other times, he looks like he belongs in the minors. He’s been in a rut lately, resulting in Alex Cora opting to skip his start to give him time to rest and reset. Pivetta started for the Red Sox on Tuesday in Houston against the Astros. Let’s dive in to see if the time off did the trick and helped Pivetta return to form.
AB #1: Jose Altuve
By now, we all know Jose Altuve. He’s incredibly aggressive, so Pivetta should steer clear of the “get-me-over” strike early in the at-bat.
It’s a fastball at 93 MPH in an okay location, but it’s no problem for Altuve who immediately starts the inning with a single.
AB #2: Yordan Alvarez
I won’t even begin to try to formulate a game plan for Alvarez. Good luck.
Curveball, just a tad high for 1-0.
Fastball, again high for 2-0. Altuve steals second.
Curveball, once again a miss. At this point, I’d probably just walk him. Oh, Altuve also stole third.
Here’s a third curveball, this one finds the zone. You still need to be very careful with Alvarez.
And that’s ball four. It’s not the end of the world, given the hitter, but now you’re in a jam.
AB #3: Yanier Diaz
Diaz is very aggressive and willing to expand the zone. He has solid bat-to-ball skills, but is very susceptible to the high fastball.
Pivetta throws his first sweeper of the outing and lands it for strike one. Free real estate.
Here’s a slider that’s left up in the zone, but Diaz can only foul it off. At 0-2 following two breaking balls and a slider that stayed up, I’d throw the high fastball as a change of pace.
Another slider that’s too high. Cross that one off the list.
Pivetta reaches back for 96 MPH and elevates. Great pitch, but Diaz fouls it off. I’d double up on the fastball.
Here’s a pretty good sweeper, but once again Diaz sees it and is able to hold off. At 2-2, it appears that Diaz has a pretty good eye for Pivetta’s stuff. With that in mind, I’d go back to the high fastball because it was just executed well, and Diaz had a weakness there.
Pivetta tries to get tricky and locate a fastball down and away. Because Diaz had just confidently laid off on a sweeper that started in the same area, Pivetta was hoping Diaz would see this start in the low outside corner and put his bat on his shoulder, waiting for the ball to break away only for the pitch to stay straight. It’s a great idea in practice, but Pivetta throws it right over the middle and Diaz hits a hard line-drive. Fortunately, it’s right at David Hamilton for the first out of the inning.
AB #4: Jeremy Pena
Pena is another hitter who will expand the zone but has good bat-to-ball skills. When he swings at a pitch in the zone, he makes contact roughly 90% of the time. He’s a good high-ball hitter, so Pivetta’s best bet may be to attack with off-speed pitches.
Fastball, top of the zone for strike one. Good velocity from Pivetta at 96 MPH.
Here’s a sweeper from Pivetta, but it starts too far off the plate to get a swing. Following the miss, Pivetta could double up with Pena thinking he’ll go back to the heater.
Pivetta tries to jam him with a fastball but misses a little too far inside. At the very least, it’s a good miss where Pena can’t punish it.
Here’s the first cutter of the outing for Pivetta, and Pena is way out in front, indicating he was expecting a fastball. Following the ugly swing, Pivetta can either change the eye level and go back to the high fastball, or throw a sweeper or slider to the low-glove side. Given Pena’s ability to hit pitches up in the zone and the potential for a double play, I’d opt for the latter.
This is a really good pitch from Pivetta, it’s just better hitting from Pena. He’s out in front, and the pitch isn’t in a location where it’s easy for him to drive, but he manages to lunge out and hit it hard enough to get the runner from third in. There was a runner on third with nobody out, getting out of here with one run would be a success, so you tip your hat to Pena and move on to the next hitter.
AB #5: Jon Singleton
Unlike many of the other hitters in the Astros’ lineup, Singleton is very patient at the plate. He strikes out often because he’s willing to go deep into counts and whiffs plenty, but he also manages to work walks at a high rate. Against righties, he’s often fooled by breaking balls down and away.
Apparently, Jon Singleton scouted Pivetta and was prepared for the plan of attack. Before Tuesday, he had swung at just one of 28 first-pitch curveballs he had seen. Knowing that Pivetta likes to steal a strike with his curveball, that was probably what he came into the at-bat looking for. 99% of the time, this is called strike one. Unfortunately for Pivetta, this is the 1% and the game is tied.
While Pivetta has had home run problems, I can’t be too mad about this pitch. If I’m Pivetta’s catcher and got the scouting report on Singleton, I’m probably calling a first-pitch sweeper or curveball as well.
AB #6: Mauricio Dubon
The Astros might have a type. Dubon is once again very aggressive, with great contact skills. While he puts the ball in play frequently, he doesn’t have much power, and isn’t a great fastball hitter. With nobody on base, I’m attacking Dubon with the hopes that he hits into an easy out.
Fastball, outside edge for strike one. Great start.
This is perfect. It’s another fastball, this time located on the inside edge. Dubon is jammed and pops the ball up for the third out.
This is a quintessential Nick Pivetta inning. While his stuff is great, he needs all of it to succeed and can never consistently put it all together. While the sacrifice fly and home run were perhaps unfortunate given the pitches they came on, the mistakes were amplified because of the poor first pitch to Altuve and the non-competitive walk to Alvarez. He’ll likely always rack up the strikeouts, but until he can more consistently locate his breaking balls, he’s going to run into blow-up innings.