According to cWPA, anyway…
As a stat, Win Probability Added doesn’t have the cache of WAR. But I like looking at WPA because it does something that WAR doesn’t: it attempts to tie on-field performance directly to a given game’s won-loss result.
Does it do a good job of this? I have no idea — I can barely even understand how it’s calculated. (Here you go, try to figure it out for yourself.) But, nevertheless, I think it’s fun because it captures the way your emotions swing from one play to the next during any particular game. And if you want to take that to the next level, there’s Championship WPA, which takes the extra step of looking at every single play that takes place on a baseball field and attempts to measure not only how impactful each play was on each game, but how impactful each play was on the entire season.
The 2024 Red Sox season wasn’t, sadly, that significant in the larger story of the MLB season. That’s what it means to be a perfectly mid team. But there were some pivotal moments throughout the season. And, had some of these moments swung in the other direction, who knows how things might’ve shaken out.
So, just for fun, let’s take a look at the five most important plays of the 2024 Red Sox season, according to cWPA.
#5. July 20: Kenley Blows A Save Against the Dodgers
cWPA Subracted: 0.33%
Things were pretty good in Red Sox Nation coming out the All-Star Break. The Sox had won 10 of their last 13 games; they used some late-game heroics to take two of three from the Yankees in the Bronx; and Jarren Duran was the best player in the game with all the best players. Fun times!
And then the second half started with a West Coast trip, and the Sox immediately lost four straight games and dropped a series to the irrelevant Rockies (quick: name a pitcher on the 2024 Rockies). Kiké’s homer came in the second game of the series against the Dodgers, and it put the Sox seven games behind the division-leading Orioles, and a half game behind the Royals for the final Wild Card spot.
#4. September 13: Cam Booser Gives Up A Brutal Grand Slam
cWPA Subtracted: 0.33%
I have no idea how this isn’t number one on the list. Judge hits a seventh inning grand slam that erases a three-run lead in a game the Sox looked poised to steal. The loss put the Red Sox 12 games back in the division and dropped them all the way down to sixth in the Wild Card race. But to make matters poetically worse, this game saw the Red Sox fall back to .500 once again, which, as they proved over and over again for six months, was exactly where they belonged.
I don’t care what the math says. Spiritually, it didn’t get worse than this.
#3. July 26: Zack Kelly Gives Up A Monster Homer At Home
cWPA Subtracted: 0.37%
And look at that, we’re back to that post-All Star Break swoon, and we’re once again watching Aaron Judge go off against a struggling bullpen. But get this: the Red Sox actually came back to win this game. Ceddanne Rafaela hit a two-run homer to make it a one-run game in the very next inning, and then the Sox pounced on Luke Weaver and Clay Holmes for three runs in the eighth. So, yeah, I’m not sure I really trust this stat.
#2. September 22: Romy Gonzalez Homers In the Fifth Inning Of A Game No One Cares About
cWPA Added: 0.50%
Cool, we finally have a play that actually increased the Red Sox cWPA. But you’re forgiven if you don’t even remember this play happening. The Red Sox entered the day in fourth place in the division and were all the way down to seventh place in the Wild Card race with a 76-78 record. It was over at this point, but they were not yet mathematically eliminated, and this three-game set against the Twins represented the team’s last stand.
After dropping the opener of the series via a brutal 12-inning loss, Saturday’s game was postponed, forcing a double-header on Sunday. The Sox cruised to an easy win behind Nick Pivetta in the first game, and then came from behind after an early deficit in the second game. Again: this play really didn’t matter. In order to have even the slightest chance of making the postseason, the Sox needed to sweep the whole series, not just the double-header. But, you know, math.
#1. September 11: Tyler O’Neill Walks-Off The Orioles
cPA Added: 0.51%
And here we arrive at the 2024 Red Sox’s real last gasp of life. O’Neill’s come-from-behind extra innings homer put the Sox two games over .500 and kept them in a three-way scrum for the last Wild Card spot, tied with the Mariners, a game behind the Tigers, and four games behind the Twins. If the Sox had been able to build on this, then they might have had a chance at making the aforementioned Twins series mean something. Alas, Juan Soto walked-off the Red Sox the very next night (a play that was somehow only the 92nd most important play of the season), and Judge’s grand slam would kill the 2024 Red Sox two days later.