The Red Sox, The Math, And The Minnesota Twins

The Red Sox are three games out of a playoff spot, and there’s one game left on the schedule that, depending on how things go, could essentially count for three games.

Over the last week or two, I’ve listened to multiple Red Sox podcasts discussing the path and the math that the Red Sox somehow still have to the third and final Wild Card spot. The general consensus is they basically have to win every series the rest of the way to catch the Twins because Fangraphs and Baseball Reference both have Minnesota’s projected win total at 86 wins or higher, and have for weeks now.

For the Red Sox to reach that floor and get to 86 wins at this stage, they now have to go 13-5 the rest of the way, which as others have noted, basically means they need to win every (or just about) every series from here on in.

But this theory is flawed. There’s another path that also gets them there, and given the way the triple Wild Card system rewards mediocrity and timely wins as opposed to consistently good baseball, it’s also the mostly likely path.

Simply put, the Red Sox need to sweep the Minnesota Twins when they come to Fenway for that three game weekend series on September 20th. If they do that, they become the favorite to take the final Wild Card spot. If they don’t, their playoff odds will remain minuscule, and will likely officially die mere days after that series.

There are three important reasons for this dynamic, so let’s dive into them now:

1) Head-to-head

The first is obvious. Head-to-head match-ups represent the best chance to gain on an opponent during any playoff push (although with the way these teams are going, that’s not as true as it was when only one Wild Card team got invited to the dance). But more importantly is the way the three game series breaks down mathematically. If the Red Sox take two out of three games from the Twins, they only gain one in the standings. But if they take all three, they gain three (obviously). So, if that Twins series started tomorrow, and we applied the difference between winning and sweeping the series, we’d have the difference between a two game deficit and a tie.

So with this first reason alone, winning that extra game against the Twins basically counts for two games, but once you take into account the next reason, it actually counts for three.

2) The Tiebreakers

If two teams end up tied for the final Wild Card spot, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, but the second is the record within your own division, and this applies even if the tie is between two teams that do not reside in the same division. Well, right now, the Red Sox record in their division (19-18) is much worse than the Twins record in theirs (28-20). Granted, the Red Sox do have 11 more games in hand to play in their division, but they’d have to go at least 9-2, and possibly 10-1 in those games to flip the second tiebreaker, and if that were to happen, they would almost certainly jump over Minnesota in the standings anyway.

So when you consider that the Red Sox already lost two out of three to the Twins earlier in the year when they played in early May, the only way you can flip this tiebreaker in a scenario where you’re likely to end up tied with the Twins is if you sweep the September 20th series later this month. That gives our Sox the 4-2 head-to-head advantage instead of the 3-3 tie, which almost certainly results in them getting locked out.

So again, if we just apply the difference between winning and sweeping the Twins series to the standings right now, it goes even deeper than the difference between being two games back and tied. It’s ultimately the difference between being two games back while also losing the tiebreaker (so you’d still have to make up three games to get ahead of them), to being tied WITH THE TIEBREAKER and actually jumping into that final playoff spot at the conclusion of the series.

Add it all up, and if you get a scenario where the Red Sox take the first two games of the Twins series, the game on Sunday, September 22nd essentially counts for three games.

Maybe there is something special about that date and magnetic properties.

3) The Twins Projected Win Total

Last night, the Luis Garcia trade finally started paying dividends. Niko Kavadas, who was one of the players the Red Sox sent to the Angels in that deal, pounded this beautiful insurance bomb in the sixth inning:

This not only helped the Angels beat Twins on Monday, but also allowed the Angels to use their bullpen in a way that leaves them more rested for the rest of the Minnesota series.

When you couple this with the Twins getting swept by the Royals over the weekend, something very important happened: Minnesota’s projected win total on Fangraphs fell to 85 this morning. And that projection is not calling for the Twins to get swept at Fenway Park. So if you throw a penitential sweep on top of everything else that’s happened over the last few days, now you’re talking about a Twins team that could finish at 84, or maybe even 83 wins, which honestly, is just perfect for the way this race is unfolding.

This means that if you again apply that theoretical sweep of the Twins to the current standings, the path to the playoffs gets so, so much easier! The Sox would go from their current 73-71 record to 76-71, meaning they only have to go 8-7 in their other 15 games to get to 84 wins, and at that point, they probably get in.

Now unfortunately, there are a couple of flies in the ointment here. One being that the Red Sox haven’t managed to sweep a series a Fenway Park all year. The optimist might say “maybe they’re due?”, but in reality, it’s an extremely negative reflection of the lack of depth on this roster, and this fact will probably continue to doom them all the way to the finish line. It’s really, really hard to hold an opponent down for three straight games when the bottom third of your roster is Swiss cheese.

But in addition to that, the Sox also have some unwelcomed company chasing the Twins, as Tom Caron noted last night.

If you’re up for a little more good news vs. bad news, we’ve got plenty of that too:

Good news: That theoretical sweep of the Twins, which again, the Sox pretty much need to get done anyway, should at least temporarily move the them back ahead of the Mariners and Tigers.

In addition to that, the Sox also have the head-to-head tiebreaker clinched against the Mariners thanks to this game, and the Rafael Devers extra inning walk-off that capped it.

Bad news: The Red Sox lost the season head-to-head tiebreaker to the Tigers when they went to Detroit and scored a grand total of two runs during their final 18 innings on Labor Day weekend.

Oh, and in addition to that recent fumble, I’m also reminded of this game back in June when the Sox had a chance to walk it off in the ninth, and Alex Cora tried to force a storybook moment by pinch hitting Jamie Westbrook for Wilyer Abreu. Can you imagine if that game ends up costing them a playoff spot?

Failing to get just one more win against the Tigers already cost them the tiebreaker here, and it could also end up being the difference depending on how things shake out over the next few weeks. If the Sox had gotten just one more win here and then swept the Twins, they would have owned all the head to head tiebreakers in this race. Instead, they need to keep Detroit behind them. (For those curious, Detroit’s record in their own division is 24-22.)

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So, with so much emphasis on the Minnesota series, it’s probably a good time to take a look at who the Sox have starting those games. With the off day on Monday the 16th, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford are currently in line to throw Games 1 and 2 of that series, both with an extra day of rest. (I like that.)

But with the Sox sliding sliding Tanner Houck back a few days to get him some extra rest, the starter in Wednesday’s game this week on the 11th against the Orioles then becomes the guy in line to start that potentially all important game on the 22nd, and that arm belongs to … (drumroll please) … Nick Pivetta!

Again, that game on 9/22 could turn out to be the single most important game the Red Sox play in three years (since Game 6 of the 2021 ALCS against Houston).

Is Nick Pivetta the right guy for that, or would you rather have Tanner Houck?

For more thoughts on this, tune into the Pod On Lansdowne on Wednesday, where Fitzy, Liam and Jake will address this topic, among other things.

For now, let us know what you think in this poll, and in the comments.