Ask not for whom the ball tolls?
Triston Casas has 14 hits for the Red Sox in 2025. (When I started making notes for this piece, he only had 12 hits and 1 home run. He has since added 2 homers. You’re welcome.)
Rafael Devers has 21 walks.
What on earth?
Through 21 games in 2024 (all before he hit the IL), Casas had 19 hits, including 6 home runs and 3 doubles. Plus 11 walks. What a season he might have had with a start like that, even if it probably wouldn’t have changed how the Red Sox season ultimately ended; maybe they finish 82-80 instead of 81-81.
Without much of a career track record, we simply don’t have much to compare to regarding Casas. But he was rumored all winter as a potential headliner for a starting pitcher. (Ignore the probability that, since he wasn’t traded for a starting pitcher, other teams may not actually have been all that high on Casas.). We weren’t crazy for thinking he’d be better than he’s been in April. FanGraphs projected him for a .236/.339/.435 slash line this year with 20 home runs. Earlier this week, as he was sitting at .160/.244/.272, and you had to wonder what had gone wrong.
But in his third-place Rookie of the Year finish in 2023 he had just as slow a start: After 21 games Casas was slashing .129/.276/.274. And that included 2 home runs.
From May onwards in 2023 Casas was like a whole new player: .291/.385./531 with 21 home runs. That’s definitely more like it! He finished the season hitting .263/.367/.490, which includes the dreadful April.
His 2023 Baseball Savant / Statcast widget looks, well, really good! There’s a lot of long red bars.
Baseball Savant
And we can compare that to this year.
Baseball Savant
The good news? Bat speed. It’s almost the same and still a strength for the big first baseman.
What’s different? Basically everything else. He’s not getting the same type of exit velocity. Not squaring up. Not hitting the ball hard. And he’s whiffing more and walking less.
A lot of this is known. It’s out there. Fans had been calling for Roman Anthony to move from the outfield to first base. And that was understandable: Casas got off to a brutal start. And Boston set expectations for 2025 high.
But two home runs in 24 hours? That’s taking that bat speed and making contact. Good contact. The sweet spot.
We saw Rafael Devers get off to a slow start, too. And while his yearly numbers aren’t where they usually are, he’s hit some homers and he’s hanging his hat on leading the league in walks.
Did Triston Casas begin to turn everything around against the Seattle Mariners? We won’t know for another week or so. But after watching Casas strike out or hit a ball weakly onto the grass for weeks, seeing the ball sail over the fence looks like really good progress.
Triston Casas might have been worth a starting pitcher all winter. Instead the Sox got their starter for a package of prospects and kept their slugger. Let’s hope he’s ready to really get into gear.